All schools in Upshur County will close at 1 p.m. today. All B-UHS sporting events today are canceled.

WVU statistics expert using data to predict extreme weather and financial downturns

New research by WVU statistician Mihyun Kim aims to predict and model extreme patterns in weather events, financial turmoil and pollution levels. Kim notes her research could play a critical role in West Virginia, which is susceptible to flash flooding, as shown here in the community of Rainelle following the destructive flash floods of 2016. (WVU Photo/Pam Pritt)

Using data and numbers, a West Virginia University statistician is exploring new methods that could predict and model extreme patterns in weather events, financial turmoil and pollution levels.

Mihyun Kim, assistant professor of statistics in the WVU Eberly College of Arts and Sciences School of Mathematical and Data Sciences, earned funding from the National Science Foundation to develop statistical tools that will address those issues.

“This research is about more than just numbers,” Kim said. “It’s about using advanced statistical tools to better understand and prepare for extreme events that can have profound impacts on our lives and economy.”

Kim’s research aims to answer questions such as “How likely is it for location A to experience heavy precipitation patterns similar to those observed in location B on the same day?” or “During a stock market crisis, do returns on different sectors exhibit similar extreme daily trajectories?”

Currently, there’s a lack of appropriate statistical tools for analyzing extreme behavior in high-resolution, curve-type data, Kim said. Functional data, a set of curves, are observed across diverse disciplines, such as daily temperature, precipitation, pollution concentration patterns and intraday stock return curves. This type of data is not a single value but rather a whole curve or function, Kim explained.

“For example, instead of just noting how much it rained today, functional data would record how the rain changed every minute of the day,” Kim said. “So, if we have minute-by-minute data, we can create a smooth line that shows exactly how the rain went up and down throughout the day.”

“Similarly, in finance, rather than only recording the closing price of a stock each day, functional data tracks how the stock price moves all day long. This way, we get a complete picture of what happened throughout the day, not just one number at the end. It helps us understand the full story of how things change over time.”

Kim will aim to create new and innovative methods for accurately modeling and understanding extreme patterns found in these curve-type data. A key component of this research will be the creation of a tool called the “extremal correlation coefficient,” which will measure how likely extreme curves in data exhibit similar patterns simultaneously.

This research could play a critical role in regions with diverse topographies, such as West Virginia where mountainous terrain with creeks and rivers is susceptible to flash flooding.

“The 2016 flash floods in West Virginia, a one-in-1,000-year event, caused 23 fatalities and an estimated $1 billion in damages,” Kim said. “The mountainous topology across the state led to varied flood patterns, concentrating risks and damages in certain areas. I believe that my risk assessment tools can help enable better preparedness and response strategies, ultimately protecting lives and property.”

The risk assessment tools are adaptable to other mountainous states beyond West Virginia and applicable to various disciplines requiring risk management, Kim said. She is hopeful government agencies will use the tools for disaster preparedness and response.

Additionally, her research will assist financial institutions in managing risk exposure more effectively.

“Given that millions of Americans have savings in retirement plans, accurately quantifying the risk of catastrophic financial losses is essential,” she said. “By providing precise measurements of risks associated with extreme market conditions, this project supports national efforts to safeguard economic security.”

The project will involve undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics research.

To amplify impact, Kim plans to collaborate with researchers from the environmental science, economics and engineering fields at WVU. She also hopes to connect with government agencies and organizations to gain access to real-world data and opportunities to further address these issues.

Share this story:

Local Businesses

RECENT Stories

Really Really Free Market and Community Potluck scheduled for Sunday, July 13

A community Really Really Free Market and potluck will be held Sunday, July 13, from 1–3 pm at Walnut and Chestnut streets, featuring free goods, services, food and opportunities to connect and volunteer.

Man arrested for attempted murder after allegedly attempting to run someone over in Walmart parking lot

Rayne Prince Marion Chuma was arrested and charged with attempted murder after allegedly trying to hit a man with his vehicle in the Buckhannon Walmart parking lot before leaving the scene.

Suspect held without bail in Brushy Fork Road robbery case

Bruno Martins Ferreira has been arrested and is being held without bail on felony robbery and conspiracy charges after allegedly participating in an armed robbery at a Brushy Fork Road residence, during which $12,000 was transferred from the victim’s bank account.

Upshur County Board of Education Agenda: July 8, 2025

The Upshur County Board of Education has released the agenda for its upcoming meeting scheduled for July 8, 2025.

City of Buckhannon calendar: July 7-11, 2025

Buckhannon has announced a series of July public meetings, bulky item and yard waste collections, family-friendly events such as Festival Fridays, deadline reminders for firefighter applications, and performances of “Mamma Mia!” at the Colonial Arts Center.

Sherry Esenwein

Sherry Esenwein, a devoted educator, animal lover, and Buckhannon native, passed away peacefully at 71 in Annapolis, remembered for her adventurous spirit, cherished family, and lifelong dedication to teaching and her beloved dogs.

Summer Basketball League kicks off

The Upshur County Summer Basketball League began its season last week, featuring multiple games with standout performances from players such as Josh Trent, Andrew Holcomb, and Sterlin Thropp, while several matches ended in forfeits.

Post 7 falls in twin bill to Charleston

Buckhannon Post 7 suffered two losses to Charleston Post 56 on Sunday, dropping the first game 14-0 by mercy rule and falling 5-2 in the second despite a late rally.

Upshur County Commission partners with development authority, eyes $550k in grants for proposed rec hub

The Upshur County Commission partnered with the Development Authority and authorized applications for $550,000 in grants, as well as a joint property transfer, to support construction of the proposed John C. Allen Regional Hub recreation complex.